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| Stokes, Jeffrey R.. |
| Data on the number of Pennsylvania dairy farms by size category are analyzed in a Markov chain setting to determine factors affecting entry, exit, expansion, and contraction within the sector. Milk prices, milk price volatility, land prices, policy, and cow productivity all impact structural change in Pennsylvania's dairy sector. Stochastic simulation analysis suggests that the number of dairy farms in Pennsylvania will likely fall by only 2.0 percent to 2.5 percent annually over the next 20 years, indicating that dairy farming in Pennsylvania is likely to be a significant enterprise for the state in the foreseeable future. |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: Dairy; Maximum entropy; Farm size; Markov chain; Simulation; Farm Management; Industrial Organization. |
| Ano: 2006 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/10218 |
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| Tonini, Axel; Jongeneel, Roelof A.. |
| The aim of this paper is to analyse the evolution of the dairy farm structure of Poland during the post-socialist period. First the paper focuses on how the farm structure has changed over time and what path it is likely to follow in the coming decade. Second, it is tested whether the evolution of farm size is explained by non-stationary effects. Finally, several statistical indicators are computed on farm mobility and on which farms are likely to survive. An instrumental variable generalised cross entropy Markov chain approach which incorporates prior information is applied for estimation. Prior information included general and plausible information on farm mobility and structural adjustments based on independent literature. The projections show that... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Dairy; Farm size; Poland; Markov chain; Generalised cross entropy.; Livestock Production/Industries. |
| Ano: 2007 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/7784 |
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| Zimmermann, Andrea; Heckelei, Thomas. |
| Previous analyses of dairy farm structural change focused on the variation over time in one or a small number of regions. Here we present an EU15-wide analysis of the change of the number of farms in different size classes. The purpose is (1) to identify the differences in regional development patterns and (2) to measure the explanatory relevance and effect of key factors suggested in the literature. Apart from the unprecedented scope, the underlying Markov chain analysis also contributes by combining observed transitions in micro data with macro data on farm numbers. Results show widely significant impacts of most explanatory variables, but also reveal the complexity of the underlying processes. |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Structural change; Dairy farms; Markov chain; Cross-regional; EU; Agricultural and Food Policy. |
| Ano: 2010 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/61006 |
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| Huettel, Silke; Margarian, Anne. |
| This paper explains regionally differentiated patterns of structural change based on a theoretical framework dealing with strategic interaction of farms on the land market. The main research question focuses on the causes of regionally persistent structures. An empirical Markov chain model is defined for the West German agricultural sector. Thereby it is possible to explain the probabilities of farm growth, decline or exit in terms of the current and former regional farm size structure. Further, the impact of variables describing the regional farm structure, thereby indicating market power of the large, the potential of high competition for land within a region and possibly high rents of the status quo in combination with sunk costs, is quantified. The... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Structural change; Strategic competition; Land market; Markov chain; Land Economics/Use. |
| Ano: 2009 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/52853 |
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